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VIRIDIAN CAPITAL ADVISORS • 805 THIRD AVENUE, N.Y., N.Y. 10022 • WWW.VIRIDIANCA.COM Equity Research U.S. Cannabis Industry January Ten Predictions for US Cannabis in 2022 With just eleven days remaining in 2021 , we make ten predictions for US Cannabis in 2022. 1. Valuations to r
VIRIDIAN CAPITAL ADVISORS • 805 THIRD AVENUE, N.Y., N.Y. 10022 • WWW.VIRIDIANCA.COM
U.S. Cannabis Industry
Ten Predictions for US Cannabis in 2022
With just eleven days remaining in 2021 , we make ten predictions for US Cannabis
1. Valuations to remain depressed with the potential for further compression.
2. New out year multiples highlight longer term upsid e potential for investors.
3. The largest MSOs will lose share to smaller operators.
4. Consolidation to accelerate.
5. Significant l egislative progress at the state level including rec in populous
states. I t will not matter for stock return s.
6. Declining flower pricing to be a problem . Pressure pre sents opportunities
for brands and service providers .
7. Software plays continue to garner main stream institutional investment .
Institutional interest repr esents a harbinger of what will come for plant -
touching operators post banking legislation.
8. Debt becomes che aper for even smaller operators . Capital access fuels
9. International opportunities become a focus for US operators .
10. Smart operators to hedge on interstate sales opportunity .
Valuations to remain depressed with the potential for further compression
US cannabis valuations h ave compressed meaningfully this year with companies
trading at an average ’22 EV/Sales multiple of 2.3x estimates and 8.0x on
EV/EBITDA. Current valuations compare to forward one-year multiples (‘21E) at this
time last year of 4.1x and 16.4x respectively.
The valuation compression stems mainly from a lack of institutional investment and
until that is resolved there is little meaningful catalyst for broad based upside.
Institutional investment will be resolved with the passage of fe deral banking
legislation . Legislation will permit traditional US banks to s ervice the space as
capital providers by using their institutional investors and thus will have to begin
accommodating trading and the custody of assets for all . As we have previously
stated , we believe an earliest time frame for the passage of any federal legislation
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