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1 November 13 , 2021 Dear Investors: The Catalyst for The Great Rotation Based on the firm’s current equity and macro models, and our investment team’s analysis, we believe we are in the explosive first wave of an inflationary cycle in the US and globally that will elevate consum
The Catalyst for The Great Rotation
Based on the firm’s current equity and macro models, and our investment team’s analysis, we believe we are in
the explosive first wave of an inflationary cycle in the US and globally that will elevate consumer prices at a
much higher annualized rate and for significantly longer than priced into financial markets today. The factors
driving our view include structural shortages in primary resource industries due to chronic underinvestment,
incipient wage -price spirals, and unsustainably high government debt -to-GDP imbalances which make a new
inflationary trend the policy path of least resistance.
As an overarching macro investment theme at Crescat today, we are calling for what we have dubbed the Great
Rotation. This theme is a highly probable and pending shift, in our view, out of crowded, hyper -overvalued, long -
duration financial assets, including mega -cap tech and negative -real-yielding fixed income securities, and into
the less populated and more underv alued segment of the market that is focused on the tangible assets at the
core of the global economy. In our analysis, the companies involved in these industries are driven by both
intrinsic and calculable fundamental value and offer some of the best value and appreciation potential in the
Rising inflation expectations and the Fed attempting to tighten financial conditions are the catalyst for this
critical inflection point. Crescat Capital LLC
44 Cook St. Suite 100
Policy makers are far from doing what is necessary to halt what is alrea dy the most inflationary environment
since the 1970s when they are instead:
• Running twin deficits at double digit percentages of GDP.
• Holding the Fed funds rate at 0% for another seven months.
• Planning to add $400 billion more in QE before beginning to rai se rates.
• Restricting commodity companies from exploring, developing, and producing natural resources.
Crescat’s Global Macro and Long/Short Equity strategies are hedge funds with significant short positions in the
overvalued areas that we believe the investor masses will be rotating out of, as well as long positions in the
undervalued areas, where we believe the smart money will be rotating into, in this likely -to-be epic regime
change. At Crescat, these two strateg ies are the most comprehensive ways to play the Great Rotation. Large Cap
and the Precious Metals strategies, on the other hand, are ways to play the long side of the Great Rotation
without the short component.
Note how the relative fundamental valuation, using enterprise value relative to sales, between the Russell
Growth vs. Value indices is re -testing the peak tech bubble levels that we saw in 2000.
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