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PORTFOLIO MANAGER COMMENTARY Third Quarter 2021 Energy MLP Strategy 620 Eighth Avenue, New York, NY 10018 | 800 691 6960 | ClearBridge.com Michael Clarfeld CFA Managing Director, Portfolio Manager Chris Eades Managing Director, Portfolio Manager Key Takeaways Souring reopening
PORTFOLIO MANAGER COMMENTARY
620 Eighth Avenue, New York, NY 10018 | 800 691 6960 | ClearBridge.com
Michael Clarfeld CFA
Managing Director, Portfolio Manager
Managing Director, Portfolio Manager
Souring reopening sentiment and concerns of slowing
energy demand in China in the third quarter led midstream energy to give back some of the very strong
gains made in the first half of 2021.
The pathway to U.S. oil production approaching pre -
pandemic levels is through increasing drilling activity,
and, perhaps contrarian, our view remains that if
economic returns are there, capital will find its way to
drilling more wells.
More drilling activity should increase throughputs across
energy infrastructure systems in the U.S. — allowing
growing cash flows to fully display the benefit of the evolved U.S. midstream business model.
Market Overview and Outlook
Souring reopening sentiment , in part due to the spread of the
Delta variant of COVID -19 over the summer, weighed on the
energy sector in the third quarter. Oil prices dipped in August as
Chinese PMIs indicated a slowing of the Chinese economy, raising
concerns about lower global demand , though demand turned out
to be res ilient and crude prices rose in September. U.S. midstream
picked up some ground late in the quarter , outperforming
equities in September , though for the three -month period the
Alerian MLP Index’s - 5.71% return gave back some of the +2 2%
and +2 1% gains from the first and second quarters, respectively.
The COVID -19 pandemic has forced midstream companies to
complete their business model transformation to generating free cash flow after dividends/distributions. Some midstream companies chose to reduce dividend s/distributions. Others
reduced capital spending. Others did both. Again, while painful like in 2016, this final transformation leaves midstream companies in uncharted waters. The sector will be free cash flow positive after dividends and distributions in 2021 for the first time. This true free cash flow yield will likely widen in 2022 and 2023. Midstream companies won’t need access to equity capital
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