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First Eagle Investment Management, LLC | www.feim.comMarket Overview 1. Source: FactSet; data as of September 30, 2021. 2. Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; data as of October 12, 2021. 3. Source: Bloomberg; data as of September 30, 2021. 4. Source: FactSet; data as of S
First Eagle Investment Management, LLC | www.feim.comMarket Overview
1. Source: FactSet; data as of September 30, 2021.
2. Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; data as of October 12, 2021.
3. Source: Bloomberg; data as of September 30, 2021.
4. Source: FactSet; data as of September 30, 2021.
5. Source: Congressional Budget Office; data as of July 1, 2021.Equity market dynamics in third quarter 2021 suggested to
us that investor confidence may have begun to wane even as
widespread vaccine distribution prompted many jurisdictions to
adapt their approach to managing the risk of Covid-19. While
the MSCI World Index was flattish for the three-month period,
September’s 4.2% decline—the first down month for the index
since January—highlighted the challenges ahead for investors.1
After the stimulus-fueled rebound from the 2020 depths of the
Covid-19 dislocations, the capital markets appear to have entered
a more complicated phase, in our view, as a result of a variety
of historical aberrations and growing imbalances. This is well
illustrated by the coexistence of negative real interest rates and
very low levels of risk premia like credit spreads. Under normal
conditions, low or negative real interest rates are the result of
some sort of macro distress, and credit spreads widen to reflect
the perceived greater risk of default in such uncertain environ -
ments. This was clearly evident upon the outbreak of Covid-19
in early 2020, as the nominal yield on the 10-year US Treasury
hit modern-era lows, real rates turned negative for the first time
since 2013, and credit spreads spiked to levels not seen since the
global financial crisis.2
Today, while nominal Treasury yields have since about doubled
off their 2020 trough, they remain far closer to the record low
than the historical average,3 repressed by unabated central bank
stimulus; combined with markedly higher inflation readings, this
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45 Pages
Chr. Hansen
investor_presentation
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