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Mott Capital Management | Morning Note Reading The Markets | Global NewsMott Capital Management, LLC Michael J.Kramer MARKET STRATEGIST 1June 2,2021 Source: Refinitiv Datastream / Mott Capital Management. LLC2019 2020 2021140160180200220240 140160180200220240 186.20208.13230.36 S
Mott Capital Management | Morning Note
Reading The Markets | Global NewsMott Capital Management, LLC
Source: Refinitiv Datastream / Mott Capital Management. LLC2019 2020 2021140160180200220240
S&P 500 EPS Est 2021 S&P 500 EPS Est 2022 S&P 500 EPS Est 2023S&P 500EPS TRENDSSource: Refinitiv Datastream / Mott Capital Management. LLCJun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May
S&P 50018MO.FWD .PERATIO
Source: Refinitiv Datastream / Mott Capital Management. LLC2019 2020 2021121416182022
S&P 500 COMPOSITE - A18PE
1 MO. CHG. 18 MO. FWD. EPS
Source: Refinitiv Datastream / Mott Capital Management. LLC2019 2020 2021200025003000350040004500
-12%-10%-8%-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%
S&P 500 1mo. Chg In EPS Est. S&P 500 COMPOSITE (RH Scale)(text)S&P 500A tranquil day so far, with the S&P 500 indicated higher by just 13 bps.
Gamma levels continue to be centered around 4,200, so we seem to be stuck here. We broke free of the rising wedge pattern yesterday, and that should result in a drop back to 4185, if not lower. However, we could see a retest of the trend line up to 4,215 first.
To this point, every attempt to break the S&P 500 higher over the last few
days has failed, and I view that in a very negative light.
Gamma may have a heavy hand here since it is firmly in place around 4,200, which means I doubt we move much beyond 4,200 on the upside.
Mott Capital Management | Morning Note
2But what is also important is that the put gamma outweighs the call gamma
once we get below 4,200. So, it would be easy for this market to start drifting lower once the index gets below 4,195.
The Qs are clinging to support at $332, and once that level breaks, it could result in a refill of the gap from last week at $326. Meanwhile, resistance around $334 to $336 is strong.
Keep an eye on the dollar index, it continues to show positive momentum, and it appears to have broken a major downtrend. 91 on the index is still my initial target.
Zoom is trading slightly higher after delivering better than expected results. I wouldn't be surprised to see the stock fade; it is simply not growing fast enough to fit into that $100 billion market cap. Again, there is nothing wrong with the company; it is an attractive business, but not at these prices.
It trades at roughly 71 times 2021 earnings guidance from the company and
probably needs to earn around $9 to $10 per share at some point in the not -
too-distant future to justify a $100 billion market cap.Source: Refinitiv Datastream / Mott Capital Management. LLC2019 2020 20210.00.51.01.52.02.53.0
2Y 5Y 7Y 10Y 30YRATES
TAQA Investor Presentation 2022
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43 Pages
Abu Dhabi National Energy Company (TAQA)
Source: Refinitiv Datastream / Mott Capital Management. LLCJun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May
S&P 500 COMPOSITE (RH Scale)
Mott Capital Management | Morning Note
3That means that earnings still need to more than double from here,
which is certainly possible, but how long does it take? The company forecasts earnings to grow by 38% this year to around $4.60 per share from $3.34 per share.
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